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Coronavirus Discussion
Benny
Shaken not stirredAdministrator, Moderator
As the world is in the midst of the corona virus.
Please post all discussion here.
This is not a political thread and any or all political comments will be removed
Please post all discussion here.
This is not a political thread and any or all political comments will be removed
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I live in Milano, within the Lombardy region which is right now the worst place on Earth speaking about the virus. Lombardy is the richest and most productive region in all Europe, with the best hospitals of the country... and our healthcare is basically collapsing. In some hospitals they started to choose which one has better chance to survive and the number of infected people in their forties is rapidly increasing.
If the virus doesn’t slow down Italy will have more than a million infections within a month. So it’s really time to stay home. Hopefully other governments are working hard to prevent. Closing airports is not enough the virus is already in every country...
By now, many of you have come to know me, hopefully, as someone who always tries to keep a positive outlook on things. Please don't put me in the "naive treehugger" section; I really don't belong there. Instead, I always try to
- remain cool, and objectively look at hard facts;
- avoid the deliberate "paniceering" that various media royally feed off;
- maintain a high level of confidence in the real experts,
the latter being precisely what most journalists, family members, friends of ours and colleagues are not.Obviously I'm not suggesting we just let things happen, don't take anything seriously and move on. Though we shall have to move on eventually, the next couple of weeks and months will present us with a frightening experience most of us have never had so far. For most of us, however, it'll end up a very protracted nightmare from which we'll eventually wake up, sweating and upset but otherwise undamaged. For a minor few among us, this will prove a painful episode in our lives, impossible to ever forget, leaving lasting scars.
In that sense, Corona isn't so different from a terrorist attack, a plane crash, a flood, a vulcanic eruption. In all these cases, we feel powerless; we are worried that it can happen at any given moment and we'll either not see it coming or we'll need to take some very drastic measures to avoid it, if at all possible.
Given the circumstances, we're also to consider a few positive things. For example:
Again, I am taking this seriously; I am not urging to just stop caring and pretend nothing's going on. But I think we would do well to remain calm, follow the proper guidelines and instructions, avoid sensational media and avoid sensational media and, at all cost, avoid sensational media!
According to the European Centre for Desease Prevention and Control, the number of new cases in China went down massively in the last ten days. You can see the chart here:
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
Now I know this doesn´t garuantee anything. We don´t know if there will be more waves coming up later. But it shows at least for now that there is no continuing increase in new cases in one place.
The numbers are to be interpreted with care, because for instance the case definition was altered twice, as you can see from the description. But a decrease from 2000 per day to around 200 is probably not merely down to number inaccuracies. Unless the Chinese stopped counting.
It would of course be helpful to find out why the infection seems so much more severe in Italy than in other European countries. I haven´t found any information regarding this yet.
Presumably, it is because of a superspreader who wasn't immediately identified that Italy got into such trouble. Some people carry the virus but show few of the symptoms if any at all.
@DarthDimi it was actually my idea and I suggested it to @Benny
Tom Hanks and his wife.
No travel to Europe for 30 days.
In my city, office towers are half empty. Hotels and restaurants are suffering.
Markets are tumbling.
I'm optimistic about a vaccination for the Corona Virus; my fear is the hit industries will take around the world until we get there.
I know man where I live it’s forbidden even to have a walk without a precise reason (like buying food/medicines).
It was never reported as just some kind of flu.
What´s important to notice is that it seems to have a very wide spectrum. Comparatively many people die in connection with it (as far as is known mostly not from the Virus alone, but from a combination of sicknesses), yet at the same time in many countries 80% seem to have little to no symptoms.
So it seems imperative to know as much about it in an objective way as possible.
Not trying to sound pessimistic, but is there any working vaccine for SARS (which is also a Corona virus)?
So the question seems, aren´t there any other ways to come out as healthy as possible? For instance, it is widely known that many food ingredients harm the immune system, for instance industrial sugar, or transfats. And how many people do eat fresh and clean fruits and vegetables every day? How many people have a healthy work-life ballance?
There´s lots that should be done now to let that amount of immune system that everyone naturally has work freely.
The thing is, noone can say how bad it is. I don´t want to downplay the danger, but to claim it´s ten times worse than the flu IMO disqualifies the speaker from being the top expert, unless he said that in a defined context that you didn´t quote.
We have to be careful, no doubt. But with so many unreliable numbers floating around, I find it irresponsible to spread absolute claims. And when I say unreliable numbers, I mean official worldwide institutions like WHO or ECDC, who on their respective pages explain openly what numbers are relative and why.
That's terrible. I hope you don't run out.
Yeah you’re right. I was speaking about the general perception of the people. All the Western world underestimated the virus and there are lot of countries who are keeping to underestimate it, even after what started in Italy a couple weeks ago.
Just read those numbers in an expressen.se article. Looks like Denmark reports similar numbers as well (615 according to bt.dk).
Sorry, mate. I didn't know that. :)
Same about the cancellation of events. In France, not two weeks ago, all events with 5000 or more spectators were cancelled. Why 5000 ? Wouldn't events with 4999 spectators be as Dangerous ? Meanwhile, I could attend a concert in the Motorpoint Arena in Cardiff, which seats 5000 people. I would have thought that the same crisis would elicit the same responses all over the world, but apparently not. I Don't understand, really.
Indeed. Should just be a matter of time for events that are yet to confirm a cancelation or postponement.
That depends, actually. A lovely Spring or early Summer might severely hurt this virus. Sunlight and heat could slow it down, bringing us some relief. If April is kind to us--and I have no means to predict that it will be--then with an ounce of luck, we may leave the worst behind us in March. Fall may bring it back... but then at least, we might be better prepared.
Yes, there's a lot of "might" and "could" and "if" here; I haven't the tools to make substantial predictions. However, it has been claimed by experts that having been able to avoid the virus in Europe and the USA through most of the Winter will work to our advantage. While the virus seems to be spreading quite fast, it could have been a lot worse if the bloody thing had been flown over from China in December or early January. It's reasonable to assume that weather conditions will gradually improve over the next few months. With it, the virus may find it tougher to spread so rapidly. It's not like the Sun will fry the son-of-a-bug, but we could go back to more feasible containment programs, placing the ball in our camp for once.
I don't want to spread false hope of any kind, but this sounds legit to me.
Just today, here in the US, for example, in addition to the NBA, which suspended operations last night (March 11th), it appears that the National Hockey League (NHL) and Major League Baseball are on the verge of following suit.
Keep safe everyone!