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Yes, but I remember very well how most fans in here were quite sceptical about a 900 Million Dollar figure, which I found in reach quite easily. And that was around november 2011.
Something has changed I think. Bond was already very big with CR and QOS. But it went on becoming even bigger, way more bigger during pre-production of SF. Cast-wise, crew-wise, marketing-wise....and eventually also box-office-wise.
The marketing and Adele helped, but I believe the public in general wanted Bond back.
I'm sure a lot of people (especially older folks) who did not catch the initial runs of CR & QoS (in particular) in the theatre had a chance to catch them on video during the 4 year wait and so they knew this Bond meant business - Craig meant business. So the Bond audience was actually growing throughout that 4 year wait as some people may have become reinvigorated about Bond during that time.
The superb teaser trailer, Olympics & Adele really helped, along with the bus campaign & 50th anniversary which really pushed it through the roof in the UK initial run and let word of mouth spread.
For me, the teaser trailer really got me pumped (and I'm already a fan). It was just incredible.....particularly the music and 'the fall', along with Craig's 'kill them first' line.
They have to do something as good this time, but as I've said, SP will come out of the box really strong due to the fact that Bond is 'phenom' material now. They have to inject humour (and they will) & they need a bad ass villain (Hinx is going to play this role) in the trailer so as to get the average Joe who has no clue about Blofeld (and who may find Waltz too intellectual a villain) excited. Seydoux is there to bring the pubescents in (and some older folks with good taste, like myself I'd like to think). It may be helpful to tastefully show some leg in the trailer as an added inducement.
T5 (it's all about the $$$ , I liked T3 but they should've stopped after T2 really)
JW (let's hope that it'll at least be better than JP 2 & 3)
SPECTRE (I think it'll be good)
Just to give some food for fought, consider that, without taking inflation into account (*) Skyfall is the 2nd best worldwide box office haul outside the USA for a 2D movie. Only Titanic tops it.
Note both have a song in the charts by a female artist in common : Adele, Celine Dion :) Come on, without looking at Wikipedia, tell me an original song for a movie that had such a success between these two !
Apart from the Adele factor, I can tell you that for instance for French box office, Skyfall benefited from a context that may not happen again : far less French comedies were released for weeks, because of Asterix : On Her Majesty's Service, that was released around Skyfall. Asterix should have killed the box office - but Asterix did "only" about 4 millions viewers (at least twice more was hoped). Then Skyfall basically had no competition. And yes, furthermore, the Asterix title was a tribute to Bond ;) And then in the end, Skyfall did in France about twice more than anyone's "expectations"...
I tell you, huge box-office is all about context.
(*) : and it's a very complicated task in this case, because there's no single currency...
Ok, I'll write it again even if it's super boring.
Consider any prediction about the worldwide box office is critically dependent of the $ exchange rate. When one says SF did one billion dollars, don't forget that actually $ doesn't even account for half of it... SF earned more in Europe than in the USA for instance. Now, if you can predict the $ exchange rate in one year, stop loosing your time here, you can become very, very, very rich elsewhere :)
I know it's boring but please consider that between mid 2012 and the end of 2012 for instance, the $/EUR changed by almost 15%. A potential "1 billion dollar" movie, with the same US/WW balance, could have ended with only "900M$" if it had been released 6 months earlier just because of that.
Right now, the $ has become stronger in the last five months. It's harder and harder to reach the "one billion mark" for a movie because you need more and more foreign viewers for the same amount of dollar in the end. But will it last for one year ? If the trend continues, you can remove 100/200M$ from all your WW predictions. But no one knows.
I remember the $ crash in 2008 during the financial crisis. At that time, I recall thinking that QoS was actually benefiting, since it was able to earn more $ for each global viewer given the lower $ to other currency conversion (ironically, Medrano I think alluded to the low $ during the payment scene in the hotel at the end of QoS). In terms of actual ticket sales, it may have actually done quite a bit worse than CR.
Keep in mind also that SF benefited from inflated IMAX ticket prices since they showed it in IMAX theatres. It did not benefit to the extent that the 3D effect that helped Avengers, but it did benefit compared to previous Bond grosses.
I still think SP will make the global top 5 in 2015, due to Bond's enduring appeal, Spectre's reintroduction, Hinx and the general hype after SF. If it ends up earning considerably more in the US than previous Bonds (and they have all done better each time in the US than their predecessor - even QoS just beat CR in the US) then SP could actually make the top 3.
It would be more fair of course to measure all of this in terms of actual ticket sales (with 3D and IMAX counting the same as a plain ticket). That would be the right thing to do. Like they do with music albums. Unfortunately, if they used that transparent measure then we would all actually see that movie theatre viewship in general has been declining for years (as have album sales which we all know about). Not exactly good for the Hollywood marketing machine......
I also would insist,that just about every Bond movie, which had M ( let me repeat: M!!) dying and Bond crying tears would have made quite some extra cash. The only way,they could have had some similar effect by having someone of the MI6 staff killed,would have been with old Desmond. If Louis Maxwell hadn't been out of the MP business for so long I would have added her to that list too.
I agree that this had an effect. I also think it's a copout. A cheap melodramatic plot device to incite the emotions. It's been a favourite Hollywood approach for decades (remember Spock in The Wrath of Khan)? That was one of the earlier times that I cringed. Rachel in TDK? Although I thought Gyllenhaal was useless so was happy for it.
Interestingly, given my disapproval of Dench's M, I was actually quite relieved and joyful during the SF finale. Not sure if that's what the producers intended.
I wonder which poor sod is going to bite it in SP. I have a feeling it's Oberhauser, despite most folk's opinion that he is Blofeld.
1. Starwars 7 (1,6 billion era)
2. Hunger Games 4 (1,2 - 1,4 billion era) > 3th movie already deliever more then Harry Potter 7 who have total of more then 963 million. Harry Potter 8 deliever 1,3-1,4 billion.
3. Jurassic World (950 million era) With a bit of lucky, the movie wil be Transformers 4 of this year with 1 billion or more..
4. The Avengers 2 (900 million era) Captain Amerika 2 deliever 714 million, whyle Iron Man 3 did more then 1,3 billion.
5. Kung Fu Panda 3 (900 million era)
6. Fast & Furious 7 (850 milliom era)
7. Bond 24 (850 million era)
8. Mission Impossible 5 (850 million era)
9. Cinderella aka Assepoester (700 million era) Sleaping Beauty with Jolie did 757 million.
10. Terminator Genisys (700 million era)
Jupiter Ascending, movie from directers of The Matrix. Mabey the Guardians of the Galaxy of 2015 with around the 800 million, but my feeling on the moment wil be more 400-600 million era.
Taken 3. Trailer already spoiled the movie or must be nothing is what look like. Les then 376 million of Taken 2 or atleast under the 500 million.
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 2 (first not did very good, but second one wil do better. Mabey somewhere in the 250-300 era.)
Kingsman: The Secret Service (Under then 300 million, mabey les then 200 million)
Agent 47 and Ant-Man wil possible not be released next year, but in 2016.
The Wolf Of Wall Street is on this moment moost succesfull movie of 2014 in The Netherlands til the numbers of Hunger Games 3 and Gooise Vrouwen 2 be confirmd and Hobbit 3 be released. The top 5 of 2014 wil be then Gooise Vrouwen 2, The hobbit 3, Hunger Games 3 , Wolf Of Wallstreet and Rio 2. Let we say for 2015: 1. Hunger Games 4 (18 million) 2. Bond 24 (16-17 million) 3. Kung Fu Panda 3 (10-11 million) 4. Jurassic World (11-13) 5.Starwars 7 (9-10).
in blue --> The movies that will pass the $1.25 Billion Dollar mark
in green --> The movies that will pass the $1.00 Billion Dollar mark
in purple --> The movies that will pass the $750 Million Dollar mark
in red --> The movies that will pass the $500 Million Dollar mark
The "Big Blockbuster Potentials" of 2015 ("SPECTRE" included):
06.02.2015: "Jupiter Ascending" (sci-fi, adventure) --> with Mila Kunis
27.03.2015: "Cinderella" (fantasy, adventure) --> Maleficent? Alice? It works
01.05.2015: "Avengers 2: Age Of Ultron" (action, sci-fi, adventure) --> Marvel adaptation
15.05.2015: "Mad Max: Fury Road" (sci-fi, action) --> with Tom Hardy, Charlize Theron
22.05.2015: "Tomorrowland" (sci-fi, family) --> Disney, directed by Brad Bird
12.06.2015: "Jurassic World" (sci-fi, horror) --> with Chris Pratt
19.06.2015: "Inside Out" (animation, family) --> first Pixar movie since 2013
01.07.2015: "Terminator 5: Genisys" (sci-fi, action) --> with Arnie Schwarzenegger
10.07.2015: "Minions" (animation, family) --> spin-off to Despicable Me
17.07.2015: "Ant-Man" (action, sci-fi, adventure) --> Marvel adaptation
07.08.2015: "The Fantastic Four 3" (action, sci-fi, adventure) -- > Marvel adaptation
???.09.2015: "The Hateful Eight" (western, crime) --> directed by Quentin Tarantino
23.09.2015: "Hotel Transylvania 2" (animation, family) --> Sony's own franchise
16.10.2015: "Crimson Peak" (horror) --> directed by Guillermo del Toro
06.11.2015: "Bond 24: SPECTRE" (espionage, thriller) --> directed by Sam Mendes
06.11.2015: "Peanuts" (animation, family) --> Snoopy returns!
20.11.2015: "The Hunger Games 4: Mockinjay Prt. 2" (sci-fi, romance, adventure) --> sci-fi/romance works
24.11.2015: "The Martian" (sci-fi, drama) --> directed by Ridley Scott
18.12.2015: "Star Wars 7: The Force Awakens" (sci-fi, adventure) --> need I say more?
The "Spy/Action" movies of 2015 ("SPECTRE" included):
09.01.2015: "Taken 3" (action, thriller) --> with Liam Neeson, already very good reviews
16.01.2015: "Blackhat" (espionage, thriller) --> with Chris Hemsworth
13.02.2015: "Kingsman: The Secret Service" (action, spy spoof) --> director Matthew Vaughn
20.03.2015: "The Gunman" (espionage, thriller) --> with Javier Bardem
03.04.2015: "Furious 7" (action, thriller) --> with the late Paul Walker
22.05.2015: "Spy" (spy spoof) --> with Melissa McCarthy as Susan Cooper
31.07.2015: "Grimsby" (spy spoof) --> with Sacha Baron Cohen, Mark Strong and Penélope Cruz (!)
14.08.2015: "The Man From U.N.C.L.E." (espionage, action) --> directed by Guy Ritchie
28.08.2015: "Hitman 2: Agent 47" (action, thriller) --> with Zachary Quinto
02.10.2015: "London Has Fallen" (action, thriller) --> with Morgan Freeman
16.10.2015: "St. James Place" (espionage, thriller) --> director Steven Spielberg
06.11.2015: "Bond 24: SPECTRE" (espionage, thriller) --> directed by Sam Mendes
12.11.2015: "Survivor" (espionage, thriller) --> with Pierce Brosnan, director James McTeigue
25.12.2015: "Mission: Impossible 5" (espionage, thriller) --> with Tom Cruise
My personal must-see's for 2015 are ;-):
--> "Kingsman: The Secret Service" (can't wait!!)
--> "Gunman" (Sean Penn, Javier Bardem guys!)
--> "Furious 7" (honouring Paul Walker, last two films were surprisingly good!)
--> "Ant-Man" (only one Marvel focussed on one comic book character only)
--> "The Man From U.N.C.L.E." (can't wait!!)
--> "The Hateful Eight" (despite of unoriginal premise...it's Tarantino)
--> "SPECTRE" (duhhh!!)
--> "The Martian" (wunderful premise: "Gravity", but then on Mars, nice tie-in with NASA's new Orion missions, following up the famed Apollo missions)
--> "Star Wars 7: The Force Awakens" (not fan of marketeer J.J. but it's Star Wars)
--> "Mission: Impossible 5" (i have a feeling it'll have more complex drama/characters, as it will copy from "Skyfall")
The Force Awakens, if it ends up being any good (which it does based on the trailer - I think the disgraceful prequels will be forgotten once this comes out) will kill it next year, along with Avengers Ultron.
SPECTRE has the potential to be massive as well, but it has to check all the boxes in order to achieve full potential at the box office. I think it will come in anywhere between 3 & 5 globally but the actual box office number is difficult to predict. It needs a very good showing in the US & China to really do well. The other markets are important, but will not make the difference.
What would your TOP 5 global prediction look like then @bondjames ?
1. Avengers - Age of Ultron (Marvel fanboys & 3D ticket prices)
2. Star Wars - The Force Awakens (could take #1 depending on how good)
3. Minions - (this kind of crap always does well)
4. Cinderella - for the FROZEN crowd - never underestimate the power of Disney & little girls
5. SPECTRE - a wildcard - can be anywhere from #3 - #5 depending on the US exchange rate & how well it does in the US/China compared to SF - may drop just outside the top 5 if the US $ stays strong since Bond does not always do as well in the US & also because MI5 may eat into its US B.O.
I'm betting Fast & Furious 7 (since the feelings/sympathies about Walker may have dissipated) & Jurassic World (for reasons noted above) don't do so well.
I'm betting Star Wars does very well because it is going to have Disney's marketing and merchandising machine behind it. They'll do whatever it takes to ensure they sell more toys in their overpriced stores. In fact, Disney is going to have a massive year in 2015.
In a word, no.
I agree with you that SF went through the roof. I think SP will hold onto the audience for the most part, but there are a lot of factors in play, including an overcrowded movie release schedule and an uncooperative (for Bond) US exchange rate at present.
Bond movies are somewhat unique in that the box office does not necessarily reflect how they are appreciated over time, unless they do horribly, which I'm sure SP will not.
Bond movies are more appreciated for their critical staying power and how the public perceives them in retrospect over time - like fine wine. That's a good thing, and it should remain that way. The best of all worlds no doubt occurs when the movie is commercially and critically mega successful, like TB, SF or TSWLM for instance. I'd be concerned if they just kept trying to one-up the previous effort at the box office. That's how we got to DAD, which didn't do so bad in the critical ratings & was a box office success when it came out, but over time has been lambasted and is now viewed very poorly, correctly so. An opposite trend affects LTK, and perhaps in time, QoS, particularly if SP builds on its plot, which it looks like it will.
I'm sure this movie will do very well, but even if it does not match up to SF (in terms of yearly rank or overall B.O. numbers) I will not mind at all, and I don't think fans will either.
Truer words were never spoken, @bondjames. :-)
Also, I agree that Bond films may be sleeper hits. Take OHMSS. One can debate over whether or not it made a lot of money back in the day but it still made considerably less than YOLT. Critics spit it out. David Picker insisted on bringing Sean Connery back and even today speaks with harsh criticism of OHMSS. Yet look at how highly this film is regarded by many today. OHMSS makes many top 5 or even top 3 lists; it's often referenced when people want to list the things that constitute a good Bond film.
Naturally I don't want SP to be a commercial failure. We saw how unkindly the studios respond to that in the early 90s. But in truth I value a good film more than a commercially successful film.
I must agree with you on "Jurassic World" @bondjames. Though the marketing/promotion for this film is quite astonishing. Chris Pratt is loved by many since his outing in "Guardians".
But I do think 2015 will see a lot of 1 Billion Dollar movies. It's just a matter of which one will do the biggest figure: 1.2 Billion, 1.5 Billion, perhaps the winner will gain 1.8 Billion?
The potential "1 Billion"-ers. And I'm gonna be bold:
01) 1.60 - 1.80 Billion: "Avengers 2"
02) 1.25 - 1.30 Billion: "SPECTRE" (There is no real competition in the same genre for this one. It'll tab basically the entire audience from "TDK", from "Bond" lovers, fans of certain actors like Waltz - Tarantino, Bautista - Marvel, the title reveal is the best ever, creating lots of mystery and gossip, and it rides the waves of "Skyfall")
03) 1.10 - 1.25 Billion: "Star Wars 7: The Force Awakens" (Wun-der-ful marketing)
04) 1.05 - 1.10 Billion: "Furious 7" (This is gonna be big with Walker's absence)
05) 1.00 - 1.05 Billion: "Minions" (these jumped up little sh*t figures...even I love them ;-))
Grossing over 750 Million Dollars:
06) 800 - 975 Million: "Cinderella" (First big one of 2015, indeed the brand Disney is as big as Bond and Marvel. Buena Vista must be the most happy movie company in the world now, as they own Disney, Marvel and Pixar)
07) 750 - 900 Million: "The Hunger Hames 4"
08) 750 - 825 Million: "Mission Impossible 5"
09) 700 - 875 Million: "Inside Out" (Pixar movie....but among animated movies franchises do it better)
10) 650 - 725 Million: "Jurassic World"
Regarding "SPECTRE", I think it will have a massive opening weekend in the USA. At least over 110 Million.
Off course not @DarthDimi. I think you really should see this independent from the movie's quality. I think it not a matter of "Bond needs to pass the 1 Billion". For me, it's just an extra :-). I "smell" a lot of...fear among Bond fans that our films "need" to earn this or that. I think thats not what this topic is about. And I also think that many Bond fans are not used yet to the fact that Bond has become as big as in the 1960's....
Regardless of its success, we most likely have a top-notch quality movie. The fact is however, that the Bond franchise really is not just big...but it has become even bigger than "just big". Marketing, promotion-wise it's a benchmark for many other franchises now, whereas in the Brosnan-era it was the other way around. SF earnings went through the roof? I actually found it quite logical. Apart from the creative minds behind the films, the business minds really upped their game as well. Casting was bigger. Promo was bigger. Names were bigger. SF as a movie, looking back, fully deserved that 1.1 Billion.
1) STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS
2) AVENGERS- AGE OF ULTRON (as much as I don't like Marvel)
3) THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY PART 2 (yawn...)
4) SPECTRE
5) MINIONS
6) JURASSIC WORLD (above Cinderella purely for having a wider target audience)
7) CINDERELLA
8) FURIOUS 7
9) TERMINATOR 5: GENISYS
10) MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE 5
God, 2015 is going be so competitive...
2015 will see some franchises fall, and some soar into heights!
Bond has killed it in the international market though. The box office for China won't be as big as no shooting is being done there. Though it was released a bit later thanks to the editing that needed to be done.
I could see a Thunderball type explosion similar to the aftermath of GF's success. 1.2b seems like a fair guess.
I don't care for Star Wars anything and Avengers is okay but nothing that gets me the least bit excited. The best thing about the latter will be Ultron, where the heroes will take a back seat to his brilliance. If I see that movie, it'll be for him.
Bond 24 has me far more excited than anything else, because so many of the items on my wish-list have been ticked.
I know the prequels have done the franchise allot of damage over the years but please this is Star Wars, people can be forgiving and although Spectre is my most awaited of 2015 I'm still excited about SW TFA and I'm 42.
http://www.darkhorizons.com/news/35057/new-dates-kong-wall-panda-gallows
Movieviral.com, TOP 20 (TOP 26 including honorable mentions):
http://www.movieviral.com/2014/12/22/top-20-most-anticipated-movies-of-2015/4/
action/thriller movies only:
#26: "The Man From U.N.C.L.E."
#23: "Kingsman: The Secret Service"
#17: "Mission: Impossible 5"
#09: "SPECTRE"
#07: "Furious 7"
Craveonline.com, TOP 15:
http://www.craveonline.com/film/articles/803305-15-anticipated-films-2015#/slide/9
action/thriller movies only:
#15: "Mission: Impossible 5"
#07: "SPECTRE"
#06: "Furious 7"
MSTARZ.com, TOP 10:
http://www.mstarz.com/articles/45078/20141224/anticipated-movies-2015-check-out-top-10-list-biggest-blockbusters.htm
action/thriller movies only:
#10: "Furious 7"
#07: "SPECTRE"
ComicBookMovie.com, TOP 10:
http://www.comicbookmovie.com/fansites/ignition/news/?a=112740
action/espionage/comic only:
#09: "Kingsman: The Secret Service"
#04: "SPECTRE"
Screencrush.com, list of 25 movies in no order:
http://screencrush.com/most-anticipated-movies-2015/
Following action/espionage/thriller movies mentioned:
--> "SPECTRE"
--> "Furious 7"
--> "Spy"
--> "St. James Place"
--> "Mission: Impossible 5"
Slashfilm.com, TOP 20 (Angie Han):
http://www.slashfilm.com/angie-anticipated-films-2015/3/
#15: "Spy"
#02: "SPECTRE"
Slashfilm.com, TOP 20 (Russ Fischer):
http://www.slashfilm.com/russ-anticipated-movies-2015/
#16: "SPECTRE"
No other action movies in the list
Slashfilm.com, TOP 20 (Peter Sciretta):
http://www.slashfilm.com/peters-anticipated-movies-2015/2/
Obviously, no real lover of action/espionage, but "SPECTRE" is ranked highest:
#38: "Mission: Impossible 5"
#30: "Kingsman: The Secret Service"
#27: "Furious 7"
#22: "SPECTRE"
ContactMusic.com, TOP 10:
http://www.contactmusic.com/round-up/contactmusic-com-s-10-most-anticipated-films-of-2015_4516450
action only:
#02: "SPECTRE"
Ranker.com, TOP 10:
http://www.ranker.com/list/most-anticipated-movies-of-2015/crisdesousa3
#08: "Mission: Impossible 5"
#01: "SPECTRE
Mashable.com, divided into genres:
http://mashable.com/2014/12/21/movies-2015/
action/thriller movies:
#03: "Furious 7"
#01: "SPECTRE"
iKnowToday.com, TOP 5:
http://www.iknowtoday.com/2014/12/22/top-5-highly-anticipated-movies-2015/
Only action movie in it:
#05: "SPECTRE"
DigitalSpy.co.uk, TOP 10:
http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/movies/news/a618046/jonathan-ross-picks-top-movies-for-2015-as-new-british-airways-critic.html#~oZh4tzzxG72GkW
action/thriller movies only:
#10: "The Man From U.N.C.L.E."
#04: "SPECTRE"
#01: "Kingsman: The Secret Service"
FirstShowing.net, TOP 20:
http://www.firstshowing.net/2014/looking-ahead-alex-ethans-20-most-anticipated-movies-of-2015/
action/thriller movies only:
#06: "Mission: Impossible 5"
#02: "SPECTRE"
CNBC.com:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102289850#.
"Assured box office monsters could be: "Star Wars: Episode VII — The Force Awakens," "Jurassic World," "Furious 7," "Avengers: Age of Ultron," "Fifty Shades of Grey," the James Bond film "SPECTRE" and animated entries like "Minions" and Pixar's "Inside Out."
IMDB's Moviemeter: Most Popular Movies 2015:
http://www.imdb.com/search/title?year=2015,2015&title_type=feature&sort=moviemeter,asc
action/thriller films:
#18: "Kingsman: The Secret Service"
#17: "Taken 3"
#15: "Furious 7"
#03: "SPECTRE"
MovieInsider.com, Most Anticipated Movies 2015 poll:
http://www.movieinsider.com/movies/anticipated/2015/
action/thriller:
#18: "Mission: Impossible 5"
#07: "SPECTRE"
#03: "Furious 7"
1. SP (of course - can't wait!)
2. The Force Awakens (again, I can't wait - trailer looks great)
3. MI 5 (Cruise always delivers)
4. Avengers - Age of Ultron (I do like the ensemble very much)
5. Kingsman (I'm a sucker for any spy oriented franchise)
6. Man from Uncle (same as 5.)
7. Jurrassic World (it seems to be treading old ground, but it's been long enough that I'm excited again)
What I'm not necessarily all that excited about:
1. Furious 7
2. Taken 3 (they should have finished this one off)
3. Terminator (They should have finished this off as well - only the James Cameron ones were any good)
PS: Digitalspy above put Kingsman above SPECTRE as an anticipated movie for 2015! Are they nuts?