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boxoffice.com is still projecting $90 million.
I agree with your thoughts on the matter ...............despite the competition from the 'Peanuts Movie' next week, i think 'Spectre' is gonna open bigger than most have predicted. :)
Plus, the International grosses for that weekend are going to be huge.
$100m or thereabouts is my prediction for the first weekend.
The question is what happens next. SF had a 53% drop in week 2 which was reasonable given how strongly it opened ($88m). However, in week 3 it only fell 13% which was remarkable. So it was actually pulling in $35m on week 3.
CR only fell 24% in week 2 but from a much smaller opening weekend of $41m,
QoS had a good $67m opening but then a massive 60.4% drop in week 2 (word of mouth obviously not as good).
Most notably CR in particular did very strong business over the Christmas holidays (it started to ramp back up around that time.....possibly because people who had not paid attention to Bond heard the good word of mouth and started going to check what the fuss was about). QoS did not recover during this time, but rather acted like a standard blockbuster which opens strong and then declines every following weekend. SF held up, but not to the extent that CR did (i.e. SF was a much more front loaded box office take in comparison to CR, but the numbers were also higher all along the way).
I expect SP to the be the most front-loaded ever. So weeks 1-3 will (hopefully) be massive and then I expect it to tail off very rapidly (so I don't expect it to have SF's or CR's legs......the question is how rapid will the fall off be in the latter weeks? If it is not large enough to compensate for the very strong opening, then it could overall still beat SF's US total).
It will be interesting to observe.
However, let no one be under any illusions. SP will open huge in all (and I mean all) markets. Then it will have to walk the walk via word of mouth like SF & CR did.
But then it might .. it might appeal to American audiences. I don't know.
The studio and BO sites don't appear to of published yet the Thursdays BO take in the UK. Mind you we may not get to know them anyway, as BO sources normally only publish the weekend or weekly figures, not the daily figures except for the US.
The only reason we have had reports of the first days take in the UK, is because the film was just released and the media were quoting the early BO figures in the UK, as a guide to how well the film was being received!
this is only hear say evidence but he says they have Spectre running in three
screens and every showing is virtually sold out. :) so I think it will make a
Healthy profit.
I found Skyfall to be ridiculously overpraised by critics but at least it was a good thing for the franchise and the movie.
But all the contradictory stuff that's written about Spectre? I mean are there two version of that movie around and I have seen only the good version??
I can't recall a Bond movie (GE to SF) ever receiving such mixed and different reviews.
"Skyfall" was not just a well-received film, like "Spy" or "Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation". It didn't just get high reviews for the sake of quality. "Skyfall" was a box office phenomenon and cultural cinematic phenomenon. And its successors almost always suffer from that. Especially from the reference point of a critic's mindset. A successor is in such a case always way more prone to comparisons, but wrong and good comparisons. I call it 'sequel backlash'.
The funny thing is though, that sequel backlash doesn't necessarily influence its box office success. Just look at "Avengers 2" or "Minions" or "The Dark Knight Rises". On top of that, with less than stellar critics reviews "Thunderball", "Furious 7" and "Jurassic World" stunned the global box office.
One last thing. The longevity of the Bond franchise and its age of 53 always creates an extra build-in backlash with regard to critics. It therefore suffers from extra scrutiny and a more dispersed set of movie/Bond fans. "Mission: Impossible" and "Jason Bourne" don't suffer from that....just yet. They are relatively new franchises, but there comes a day when their lead actors have to leave as well, like with Bond.
Anyway, I'm not so worried about the current review aggregates like MetaCritic, Rottentomatoes, IMDB and Moviemeter. They are still high enough for "SPECTRE" and in part the success of "Skyfall" still echoes through "SPECTRE". :-)
Good points GG. In reading the reviews I was getting annoyed by the constant comparisons to SF by some critics, instead of just concentrating on SP and what worked. It seems that some critics wanted a SF sequel and are dinging the film over not getting it. I'm glad it looks like we didn't get it and got a full out Bond film instead. I'm guessing the US BO will dip, but the rest of the world will hopefully make up the difference based on the great start in GB and the Netherlands.
I don't know ..American audiences may take more to SP than SF.
SP has received a lot of *** "good, but not great" reviews, some important ****/***** "brilliant, the best or one of the best Bonds ever" reviews and a few ** "poor or so so" reviews.
QoS or DAD had a lot of ****/*** "thrilling, very entertaining" reviews and a lot of **/* "poor or bad movie" ones. And TND or TWINE were not so much different.
My pont is that, within this obvious division, the average rating (6.5-7) is higher than QoS, DAD, TND or TWINE means (5.5-6).
Even that.....should be scrutinized with a bit more nuance I think. Perhaps style-wise "SPECTRE" is different than its three predecessors, but narrative-/plot-wise the film es enturely a sequel of not only "Skyfall", but also "Casino" and "Quantum". Perhaps "SPECTRE" is like a perfect combination of "narrative sequel" vs. "typical Bond classic"?
It will have run its course by then. If the film has legs which based on reviews and fan reviews I think there is that possibility then it will be hanging in there like a ..umm ..spectre.
Yes, you could be absolutely right.
But then Spectre opens in record shattering numbers of cinemas around the globe which will automatically mean box office records for the first two weeks.
After that ticket sales could drastically decrease because the fan base and people who would go and see it anyway have already seen it and if WoM is not really good undecided people could decide to go and watch something else instead.
We'll see.
http://pro.boxoffice.com/statistics/movies/bond-24-2015
http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2015-09-long-range-forecast-spectre
BoxOffice.com has adjusted the opening weekend now to +$96 Million, though many of the theaters haven't been counted yet. Those sneeky basterds have actually updated their long range forecast, which initially was $90 Million :-).
http://www.boxofficemojo.com
BoxOfficeMojo.com has now started counting the theaters in the US for "SPECTRE", though this will rise as many smaller cinema chains haven't released their theater counts yet. It now stands at +3,800, which is 300 more than "SkyFall"s 3,500.
From my perspective, the key will be the narrative that is portrayed. That narrative (ultimately, if not initially) will not be shaped by the UK, nor by Europe. It will inevitably be shaped by the US market, since they are the biggest media market by far. If they are positive, then we will be left (once it's all said and done) with a TB. If they are negative, then we will possibly be left (again once it's all said and done) with MR, or even worse, a DAD (unlikely though because SP appears to be far superior to this film).
One thing I've been considering: the Bond studio distribution negotiations take place soon. Some of the major studios competing for this franchise have massive media arms as well (e.g. Disney/Warner etc.). I wonder what impact that could have. Most of us know the US press is not entirely unbiased and neutral given conglomerate ownership.
I see little point trying to equate a general press review matching SP to past Bond films of a different era of more limited media exposure etc - it's purely a subjective call and really a bit meaningless. So great, what, SP is DC's TB or TSWLM?
When it's all done I cannot see SP being painted as anything but a resounding success (it's superb!) and a rightful key piece of ALL the Bond cannon or DC era entries within it in much the way CR and SF have which QOS seemed to dip from in general public perception. I think many cinemagoers are going to love the Bond on a mission and globetrotting aspect and lest angst and be exactly the Bond everyone's grown up with but with a bit more bite and thought - DC carries this off perfectly with a SC ease.
Time will tell. At the moment everything is is all purely speculative without the hard £/$ figures and all I really care about is everyone important involved with Bond 25 is happy and get the money the next one deserves (we deserve!)