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I stand corrected. Not sure what I was looking at.
With the CDC here in the U.S. working towards recommending booster shots for the general public, I worry that they will delay again until that's happened because they think it will be correlated with people's willingness to go to cinemas. This would put us back to where we were a year ago, lending credence to a delay til 2023
@ertert - I believe you were looking at the percentage of people in NY who have had at least one vaccination shot; that number is about 70%. The 56% number is those who have been FULLY vaccinated. So you weren't wrong!
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/venom-release-studios-blink-amid-delta-1234998912/amp/
THR agrees with you lol, MGM doesn't want to spend more on a delay.
The calculation is: ramp up the marketing to insane levels, spend a ton of money between 9/1 and 9/30, release in October, it will likely be the biggest box office of the pandemic, but still be a net loss for the studio.
Or pull it off the calendar entirely and wait until 2023 or later when a $1bil box office becomes feasible again. This is the safest option and ensures they don't waste more money on marketing. This would be great for Eon but terrible for fans and the industry overall since all eyes are on NTTD as the best barometer for the industry's health right now.
You'd think that since it's supposedly coming out in 5.5 weeks they'd be marketing it everywhere. It still seems pretty quiet which isn't a good sign.
EDIT: Just read that the U.S. will start offering boosters to all Americans by the end of September. The shots will be given 8 months after the initial doses, so this would but us at January-March 2022 for most Americans. Would not be surprised if they delay based on this news until lots of people have had a chance to get it.
I think there's a lot of assumptions in this post that are unfounded — namely that it's "safe" to sit for two years on a film, and that there will be interest in two years, and it is worth pushing development of future projects further.
I understand your fear and concern, but — as of this moment — there is no indication they are delaying. They ran some advertisements in the Olympics, they are booking venues, they are running social media spots again. I anticipate Labor Day weekend and once football starts up increasing amounts of it.
My assumptions are based on Eon's prior public statements and sentiments. I'm really hoping their attitudes have changed and adapted to the times. The problem is that the current date was chosen based on the assumption that most people in the bigger markets would have had their vaccines by then and we'd be largely back to normal. They did not know Delta would ravage the world. This is likely causing them to completely rethink their plans.
Tells you how foolish we Americans are. Many would rather pay under the table for a fake vaccine card than actually get the vaccine...for free.
On a separate note, EON had two good windows in which to release NTTD and they missed both of them: September 2020 and May/June 2021. The latter was better.
Just bad luck.
What happens if they delay to say February 2022, and like this year we're still not over it?
May/June 2021 would have been ideal. If Eon is waiting for a period when the UK, US, and China all have low case counts so they can release it in theaters, they may be waiting for a while...
Entirely possible we don't see the film until 2023.
That won't happen. They'll bleed so much money delaying it another year and a half. I'll be surprised if it's delayed again at this point, at least beyond the first few months of 2022 at the absolute latest.
If they stick, they will lose a ridiculous amount of money.
If they delay, they will lose money anyway without even being certain that the next release date would coincide with their expectations*.
At this point, imo, better just get rid of this cursed damned picture and look at the future. Amazon will pay for the debts. Shouldn’t be a big deal.
*with the reasonable risk of releasing a film that already feels dated, jeopardizing the box-office run.
This pandemic could be a decade long ordeal in which they could feasibly shelve the film and forget about it until 2032 for the 70th anniversary. Then when everyone least expects it, Bond comes back in a big way with Craig's final outing, and we get a new actor in 2037 for the 75th anniversary.
In the meantime, we'll just have to be patient as we usually are for a new Die Hard or Indiana Jones adventure while the years pass.
Just kidding.........it'll be in theatres end of next month. :)
Will they really? I know nothing about how films are produced so I'll introduce that caveat but I remember reading either on this board or in an article that there was no interest on the film because it was entirely self-funded, therefore the only thing they are spending money on at this point is marketing. So, if Barbara Broccoli insists on making $1bil at the box office and doesn't want to waste more money marketing for a release date that won't earn anywhere close to that, it's logical to delay for a few years until that amount of $ becomes possible again.
God I hope I'm wrong though. So badly. We all want to see this film and for it to be as successful as possible.
Is it possible that they’re still hedging their bets and open to the option of a further delay?
Yes absolutely. You'd think they'd be screaming from the fences that NTTD is right around the corner.
From what I've gathered, they're losing around $1 million a month while it's delayed. I'm not sure about all of the reasons why, and I know it isn't much in the grand scheme of a several hundred million dollar return, but it makes more sense to release it now, earn what you can instead of continuing to bleed money and release it in six months to a year when we still might be grappling with this virus in a substantial way.
Not that magazine covers are the be all and end all, but they are a nice way to remind the general public as they do their weekly grocery shop that the movie is coming out.
The fact that the song isn’t getting radio play anymore, Billie Eilish has moved on and is now promoting new music, we don’t have new poster designs, new trailers, no new press interviews, Strictly and Top Gear aired their promotional tie-in material last year, it just adds to how bizarre this release is going to be.
Does anyone know if the general public are still even interested in the movie at the moment?
People love Bond, they will flock to see it in as much capacity as they can during the pandemic. It will probably be the biggest box office of the Covid era, though that may be hampered by the Delta variant.
It is odd though that they've been relatively quiet lately. I was expecting a massive push in August.
Suppose they'll have to get asses in seats the old fashioned way — release a good movie people won't shut up about.
There’s no way it’s gonna outgross F9. :(
That seems very low..? Are there problems there?
That's total population so it includes children not eligible.
The new trailer dropping is likely contingent on a 100% confirmed green light to go ahead with release next month -- and I worry its absence is telling us that, behind closed doors, they still aren't 100% sure.
Once they've passed whatever drop-dead date they have in place where they can still delay, we're likely to see the "final push" ramp up including that trailer.
Most of what we've seen in recent weeks -- Safin images + video, hints of the podcast, prop replicas for sale, etc. -- wouldn't be majorly compromising if there's another delay. Not like last September's debacle, where a new trailer and soundtrack preview immediately turned into a massive gut punch for the fans. One would hope that type of scenario is what they'll be trying, above all else, to avoid repeating.
I was cautiously optimistic up until a few weeks ago, but this level of silence this close to release gives me tremendous pause. We've been through this so many times now, I'm just kind of waiting for the hammer to fall...
Yes you’re right, as I can see it seems to be just over 70% with both doses over 18: still a little low but not as bad.
The general public has to be interested in the movie in late September/early October - not now.
In our fast paced world, people in October will have forgotten what they read or saw in mid-August.