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+1
It's tough, because I originally was in favour of a digital release in lieu of yet another release date, but if they release it digitally now I wouldn't be able to enjoy it with anyone anyways. I think at this point I'd take a theatrical release date in the future, whenever theatres are able to reopen. Think of the celebration there would be.
If the shutdowns go for this long the notion of a traditional wide theatrical release might not be there anymore, even for blockbusters. Whatever is already done like NTTD, Mulan etc, or in production they'd just have to write off the difference, because straight to home can't yet replicate the sort of revenues you can get from a theatrical release. Budgets for future blockbusters would have to be lower to make the economics work, and theatres would likely become a more premium/vinyl-like niche experience. Arthouses may end up surviving, as cash strapped as they are, because they're able to keep generating some revenue at the moment (experimenting with VOD, asking for donations/membership purchases/not refunding tickets - and audiences who are willing to pay for the big screen even if the film is available at home). Major chains though, on which blockbusters like NTTD rely, another question entirely.
Therefore I feel if they can't make November, they'll seriously consider doing VOD because at that point, the industry as we know it will have changed...
Agreed. NTTD could be postponed to April ‘21 with F9 moving in Summer.
I have a 55" HD in my living room. If I shut the lights off and get a stale popcorn smell candle, I will gladly take a digital release.
Anyway it's a strong possibility.
What will happen is either a crowd or seating limit. Only tent pole movies will be showed. Maybe 3 or 4 at a time.
Eon will likely see a box office return similar to Spectre or slightly higher.
I don’t want a streaming release I want to experience it in big screen imax. This film was made for it. I think this one was meant to be seen on the big screen with round of applause moments. just like CR and SF
The Italian release being postponed does not mean it will happen everywhere else.
But the question is - as @matt_u mentioned - what the Italian government is doing is somewhat of a model for other countries in Europe in how to respond to the virus as they're further ahead in the outbreak. If indeed cinemas don't reopen until December there, what are the odds they won't reopen in the UK and the US until then either.
Probably something to do with that being the the absolute earliest timeline for a vaccine (though September has now been mulled by UK scientists)
Yep my same thoughts. I would be super happy (for you guys XD) if the film will indeed open in all the countries in the world except mine, but honestly it doesn't sound quite realistic... anyway it's too early to take this possibility for granted. Point is right now nothing is 100% certain even tho this "news" doesn't sound promising...
Another thing is the BO gross ceiling it can theoretically reach. Yes, it will likely be negatively affected if it releases directly after cinemas reopen, but not nearly as much if it's already hit the ancillary market for the reasons mentioned above. I'd be surprised if it broke USD100 million worldwide at that point. That's not a figure I want to be reading in a legacy book years from now.
Now, will the major chains even exist by the time lockdowns end, if this goes beyond the general consensus of things reopening (with social distancing measures still on) in July. As I said, if this goes on longer things in the industry won't be the same as they've been before the lockdown. Will *anything* get a proper theatrical release? Will there be an appetite for one? Will cinemas themselves even exist to the same extent?
If November doesn't happen MGM is faced with a choice to keep delaying indefinitely for a theatrical release that may not even happen to the extent it would have before the lockdown...or just releasing on VOD sooner and finally getting the film out there and recouping at least some of that budget. Others will be in the same boat too.
I kind of doubt November now. Are they going to have temperature checkpoints before you go into a theater? What if someone is asymptomatic?
Additionally, there will be a shortage of new films in about a year.
If we are lucky enough to get a vaccine by then, we will see Bond in summer or Thanksgiving 2021. And it will be the biggest box office yet because people will be hungry for it.
I’d say Jan 2021 at the latest. But I think November will stick.
Cinemas will open but nowhere near full capacity. NTTD will likely pull in 700-800 million maybe a bit more.
If they went VOD the film loses big money which they won’t do.
This is something that has crossed my mind – although not with NTTD specifically. I wonder how the "gut feeling" from those involved and the studios is like after a project, and how this might affect aspects like marketing etc – if at all. That's what test screenings are for, I guess.
I have some of those older publications from back in the day when I was a member of the 007 fan club in the 1990's. Damn, time flies. I must dig them up sometime...
Buy a projector ...
:))
And the panicking continues...