NTTD & Corona

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  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited September 2020 Posts: 15,716
    And as I said: $200 million world-wide given the pandemic is a strong number. $200 million world-wide on a $200 million is a financial disaster.

    2 sentences. How lazy must @Zekidk be to not even be bothered to read 2 sentences. But he isn't lazy to falsely accuse others of doing precisely the mistake he made.

    It is becoming incredibly sad how some members have lost all ability to think intelligently since the pandemic began. It shouldn't be necessary to explain how $200 million world-wide on a $200 million budget is a flop. But here we are.

    Once you start claiming actual data, numbers and facts as false, you become no better than the 'fake news' crowd on social media.

    It is strange how some just refuse to admit Tenet's box office is terrible. Not even when professional box office trades are saying same thing. I guess all experts are 'fake news' now. What a sad world to live in.

    A month ago Tenet was predicted to earn between $150 million to $300 million domestic. It now won't even reach $100 million. And yet people still claim it is a success. Maybe I was wrongly taught maths in school and 100 million is a bigger number than 300 million. Maybe Nolan succeeded in inverting real-world money using his tenet device.
  • Posts: 625
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    echo wrote: »
    Eon isn't stupid. They know they have a good product (even SP did well, despite the reviews) and they will wait to release Craig's final film when the moment is right.

    Clearly, anything indoors (aside from staying at home) is more risky than being outside, for now. Anyone who doesn't see that is denying reality. Wear a mask and stay away from other people.

    WB/Tenet did Eon a huge favor by showing them that it is too soon for NTTD.

    But going to the movies is not more risky than it was before corona.
    I would say that it is even more safe than it was before.
    Last winter you could get all kinds of illnesses when going to a crowded theatre.

    Now you have social distanced seating, face masks, good air condition and nothing bad will happen.
    There is no known case of an infection during a movie screening.

    This is not denying reality. This is reality.

    And how about the reality of the box office numbers being too low, even if cinemas are deemed 100% safe?

    Cinemas can even be declared 200% safe, or 300% safe. It won't magically make attendance rise.

    Yeah, that's the problem.
    The problem is not the safety, it's the "angst" of the people.

    But even that is different in different countries.
    In China they have box office numbers like last year again.
    In Europe numbers start to go up the more new movies get released.

    So for the cinemas in the US it would be best if they had 3 or 4 big blockbuster movies at the same time to fill the seats.
    To just show Tenet for months cannot be the goal of cinemas.

    So Distributors AND the public have to re-think.
  • Posts: 3,276
    It is becoming incredibly sad how some members have lost all ability to think intelligently since the pandemic began.
    You really need to relax and take a chill-pill. You come of as a very aggressive person.
    No need for further discussion.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited September 2020 Posts: 15,716
    Zekidk wrote: »
    It is becoming incredibly sad how some members have lost all ability to think intelligently since the pandemic began.
    You really need to relax and take a chill-pill. You come of as a very aggressive person.
    No need for further discussion.

    The discussion was already over once actual numbers and facts are ignored because they don’t fit certain narratives.

    People post box office predictions? Who cares! They are always wrong anyway.
    The actual box office results happen to be much, much lower than these predictions ? Either total silence or certain members will invent numbers or do crazy mental gymnastics to explain said terrible numbers are actually good.
  • Posts: 3,276
    You just keep telling yourself that!
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited September 2020 Posts: 15,716
    Zekidk wrote: »
    You just keep telling yourself that!

    Final opening weekend projection for Tenet domestically: $25 million.
    Actual opening weekend: $11 million.

    Final total domestic projection for Tenet: $150 million to $300 million.
    Current projection based on first 2 weekends: $100 million domestic.

    But lets ask @Zekidk and his alternative mathematics to explain that Tenet isn’t a financial disaster!

    Years of box office discussion down the drain now that people are saying with a straight face that $200 million on a $200 million budget means it is a total and undeniable success!

    Variety posted today that Tenet will finish just over $300 million world wide, which is over $100 million below its break even point. This movie certainly is even more profitable than Avengers Endgame!
  • Posts: 3,276
    @DaltonCraig007

    I never called it a succes. Why do you insist on referring to something I never wrote? My only argument here is that it's much too early to call it a finansial disaster. We are only two weeks in, and it has almost made half to break even. Here in Europe 'Tenet' is life saver support for many theatres that really need a blockbuster, and it's going to be the main ticket in weeks to come, too.

    And please stop bullying people. If you think you have a strong case, there's really no need for it:
    The thing is, the completed films which have been delayed to Spring or Summer 2021, you can say "Oh well, fair enough. What can you do" and leave it at that.
    If / when those films are pushed back to Autumn or Winter 2021 or possibly into 2022, doesn't the general reaction from audiences at that point become more justifiably annoyed or angry? At what point does it feel like potential audiences are being taken for fools / insulted for actively looking forward to seeing any of these films?

    How about you actually pay attention to the current situation. Or are you being oblivious on purpose?
  • tonesmalones09tonesmalones09 Minneapolis
    edited September 2020 Posts: 28
    I think If I can maybe phrase what DaltonCraig007 is saying in nicer terms is that, yes, we are only 2/3 weeks into Tenet's theatrical run. But it is very unlikely a drastic turnaround is going to happen, especially in terms of the US box office. It made $7m here last weekend and things don't look good. You can hope that it will still recoup it's budget and some, but that's looking unlikely. It might be time to start viewing it in terms of what it's likely to be (a bad strategy) than what we hoped it would be (the revitalization of theater-going and a promising sign for NTTD). Warner Bros and other movie studios are clearly viewing it as the former.

  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited September 2020 Posts: 15,716
    I have posted many times how Tenet has failed to reach almost all of its box office projections. It even fell well below them on more than one occasion. Professional trades are now projecting it will fail to reach its break even point. So given Tenet’s track record concerning official projections, you believe it will come way above its final predicted worldwide total... why, exactly?
  • edited September 2020 Posts: 3,276
    you believe it will come way above its final predicted worldwide total... why, exactly?
    Again....
    Zekidk wrote: »
    @DaltonCraig007
    Why do you insist on referring to something I never wrote?
    I think that there's time for it to break even. And then there's revenue from streaming and Blu-Ray sales. A success? No, certainly not. A financial disaster? Only if it doesn't break even.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited September 2020 Posts: 15,716
    Zekidk wrote: »
    My only argument here is that it's much too early to call it a finansial disaster. We are only two weeks in, and it has almost made half to break even.
    I have posted many times how Tenet has failed to reach almost all of its box office projections. It even fell well below them on more than one occasion. Professional trades are now projecting it will fail to reach its break even point.
  • Posts: 3,276
    Some are more optimistic:
    "Part of the ambiguity is that nobody really knows how to assess the results for “Tenet.” Sure, in ordinary times, $20 million would be a disastrous result for a Nolan film. But these are no ordinary times.

    Without much competition on the horizon, Warner Bros. is hoping that “Tenet” will enjoy a longer-than-usual run on the big screen to help recoup its massive $200 million budget
    (...)
    “The major markets that haven’t opened yet are all areas where a Christopher Nolan film would do well,” Corcoran noted. “As more open, there’s a real runway for ‘Tenet’ to continue doing well.”

    Cinemark CEO Mark Zoradi said 70% of the cinema chain’s 525 U.S. locations reopened in time for “Tenet.” He estimates that opening weekend receipts would have been closer to $30 million if venues across California and New York were able to welcome customers.

    “There’s clearly progress being made,” Zoradi said. “Our expectation is that ‘Tenet’ will have an unusual play pattern compared to your typical movie because new theaters will be opening up each week.”
    https://variety.com/2020/film/news/tenet-opening-weekend-box-office-wonder-woman-1234762206/
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited September 2020 Posts: 15,716
    That $20 million opening weekend number has since been revealed to actually be a $11 million opening weekend. Second weekend maxed out at 6.7 million. It’s third weekend is projected to be just above or just below $5 million. Meaning Tenet will still be at around 35 million after 3 weeks. It was projected to open at $25 million even without L.A and New York.
  • RedNineRedNine Poland
    Posts: 71
    I feel like people here are operating on two different wavelengths. Yes, we really understand that Tenet underperformed at the box office. However there are multiple different factors that play into why it may not be as significant in the long run.

    A. Tenet is just one movie. For all we know even without the pandemic it could have ended up being a box office flop, new IP, no real A list stars etc.
    B. We have no data to compare their numbers. For all we know it may ended up being a new reality for big movie releases and we will look at those numbers in few years and consider them to be actually acceptable.
    C. We really don't know shit. We are all assuming stuff, we have no actual idea what's the reality will be going forward. Will cinemas survive ? Are people actually going to watch the delayed movies ? What if all those delays will kill cinemas everywhere and everyone will have to hit streaming services ? What if now is actually the last moment to make any money at the box office ?

    I feel like we have to take all those matters into account. It would be the best for everyone if we all remind ourselves that we have no actual idea what we are talking about here, we are all assuming, making educated guesses but in the end we might all be wrong. Let's all keep our minds open
  • Posts: 3,276
    Researched that. Yes... I see that the numbers on Box Office Mojo have it at 20,2 mio, but failed to mention that it included revenues from Canada as reported somewhere else.
    Let's wait and see what happens.
  • MakeshiftPythonMakeshiftPython “Baja?!”
    Posts: 8,183
    When the numbers aren’t good enough, it doesn’t matter what one’s sentiments are about cinema.
  • JamesBondKenyaJamesBondKenya Danny Boyle laughs to himself
    Posts: 2,730
    If they delayed this film on October 12th, it would still be a longer time frame before release than the delay earlier in the year. That one was like 27 days before the premiere.
  • edited September 2020 Posts: 12,837
    There is a difference between something maybe being necessary and wanting it to happen though. Nobody wants a delay. Everyone here would have wanted NTTD in theatres this time last year. In a perfect world that's what we would have gotten. But unfortunately, the world sucks at the moment and studios need it to be less sucky for their films to thrive. It's just how it is.

    And I say this as someone who believes that EoN/Universal will stick to their guns regarding NTTD in November.
    Thank you for your post, you do make some very good posts. I do think if November's not possible, it's better at that EON to release it on VOD at that point rather than delay it again for another date which also isn't set in stone. It just feels like there's a lot of negative talk on here about the film being released right now. Thanks again. 🙂

    I guess I'll ask it this way. Would you still want it released to VOD if you knew that it had almost no chance to recoup its budget? I think we all want to see NTTD as soon as we can, but we also want EON/MGM to make a healthy profit from it to ensure more Bond films are made with this scope and scale right? I don't think any of us know the financial ramifications of NTTD being released to VOD and only making $200-$300M but safe to assume that would be very bad.

    I think it could make more than that on VOD if they released it soon, over Christmas. Most people really can’t be bothered to go out of their way to pirate movies imo. And they’d have the advantage of being the first big franchise blockbuster to have released all year.

    The thing about delaying again is, we don’t know where we’ll be in a year. And they won’t be able to just sit on a massive, 250 million, product placement filled blockbuster indefinitely. At some point they’ll have to see some sort of return on investment. And the longer they delay it, the more that budget will balloon, thanks to marketing.

    They could delay it another year and hope for the best. Spend even more money on a third marketing campaign in the process. But what if things still haven’t picked up by then at the box office, and they then have to give up and just release it on VOD anyway? A massive waste of money and they’ve missed their chance to strike while the iron is hot, as the studios behind the other delayed blockbusters will probably be giving up too by then.

    At this point, I think it’s safe to say the chances of NTTD making a big profit are non existent. And I think their best bet for damage control, ensuring they at least make some money, would be to stick to this date, either through a hybrid release (VOD in America, cinema elsewhere?) or just on VOD, depending on how things are Corona wise.

    I’m not worried about future Bond films either. It’s a huge iconic brand and they must make a fair bit from the old films. One flop wouldn’t kill the series. I do think we won’t see another one with such a big budget anytime soon though.
  • tonesmalones09tonesmalones09 Minneapolis
    edited September 2020 Posts: 28
    There is a difference between something maybe being necessary and wanting it to happen though. Nobody wants a delay. Everyone here would have wanted NTTD in theatres this time last year. In a perfect world that's what we would have gotten. But unfortunately, the world sucks at the moment and studios need it to be less sucky for their films to thrive. It's just how it is.

    And I say this as someone who believes that EoN/Universal will stick to their guns regarding NTTD in November.
    Thank you for your post, you do make some very good posts. I do think if November's not possible, it's better at that EON to release it on VOD at that point rather than delay it again for another date which also isn't set in stone. It just feels like there's a lot of negative talk on here about the film being released right now. Thanks again. 🙂

    I guess I'll ask it this way. Would you still want it released to VOD if you knew that it had almost no chance to recoup its budget? I think we all want to see NTTD as soon as we can, but we also want EON/MGM to make a healthy profit from it to ensure more Bond films are made with this scope and scale right? I don't think any of us know the financial ramifications of NTTD being released to VOD and only making $200-$300M but safe to assume that would be very bad.

    I think it could make more than that on VOD if they released it soon, over Christmas. Most people really can’t be bothered to go out of their way to pirate movies imo. And they’d have the advantage of being the first big franchise blockbuster to have released all year.

    The thing about delaying again is, we don’t know where we’ll be in a year. And they won’t be able to just sit on a massive, 250 million, product placement filled blockbuster indefinitely. At some point they’ll have to see some sort of return on investment. And the longer they delay it, the more that budget will balloon, thanks to marketing.

    They could delay it another year and hope for the best. Spend even more money on a third marketing campaign in the process. But what if things still haven’t picked up by then at the box office, and they then have to give up and just release it on VOD anyway? A massive waste of money and they’ve missed their chance to strike while the iron is hot, as the studios behind the other delayed blockbusters will probably be giving up too by then.

    At this point, I think it’s safe to say the chances of NTTD making a big profit are non existent. And I think their best bet for damage control, ensuring they at least make some money, would be to stick to this date, either through a hybrid release (VOD in America, cinema elsewhere?) or just on VOD, depending on how things are Corona wise.

    I’m not worried about future Bond films either. It’s a huge iconic brand and they must make a fair bit from the old films. One flop wouldn’t kill the series. I do think we won’t see another one with such a big budget anytime soon though.

    I agree we don't know enough to know how successful a VOD release would be, but it feels like the large wish from the fan community to do a VOD release is just to see the movie earlier, not because anyone thinks that's a more financially lucrative or a viable option. As stated more eloquently by @CraigMooreOHMSSabove, theres a difference between things being necessary and wanting it to happen. I don't think a 2020 VOD release is necessary for the franchise. If all other major franchises are pushing to 2021 for a (hopefully) more lucrative theatrical release, I don't know a good reason why NTTD shouldn't follow suit, setting aside the fact we all want to see the movie asap.
  • WillyGalore_ReduxWillyGalore_Redux I like my beer cold, my TV loud and my homosexuals flaaaaaaming
    edited September 2020 Posts: 294
    Rumors growing stronger by the hour that an imminent announcement will be made by the UK Government declaring the North East of England enters into a 2nd lockdown.

    https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/local-lockdown-north-east-rules-18945698
  • And please stop bullying people. If you think you have a strong case, there's really no need for it:
    Thank you Zekidk!
  • The thing about delaying again is, we don’t know where we’ll be in a year. And they won’t be able to just sit on a massive, 250 million, product placement filled blockbuster indefinitely. At some point they’ll have to see some sort of return on investment. And the longer they delay it, the more that budget will balloon, thanks to marketing.

    They could delay it another year and hope for the best. Spend even more money on a third marketing campaign in the process. But what if things still haven’t picked up by then at the box office, and they then have to give up and just release it on VOD anyway? A massive waste of money and they’ve missed their chance to strike while the iron is hot, as the studios behind the other delayed blockbusters will probably be giving up too by then.
    You've made a really good point https://www.mi6community.com/profile/thelivingroyale - better worded than I could have done. I particularly agree with these two paragraphs.
  • BennyBenny Shaken not stirredAdministrator, Moderator
    Posts: 15,135
    People, people, people.
    This is all getting way too hostile, and unnecessarily nasty. @DaltonCraig007 you have my respect as far as your passion and compiling data based on films and box office. However, please don't call other members trolls, because you have a difference of opinion. Just because you believe you're right, doesn't mean that you are. Keep in mind that @RogerJonMoorePertwee lives in a different part of the world to you, where the situation is not the same as yours. He also has a different opinion to you. That doesn't mean he's wrong.
    By being uncivil with each other is not going to solve anything. A heated debate is fine, but when it descends into name calling or hostility, then it has to stop. Before submitting a post, think about what effect it may have. That goes for all of us.

  • Junglist_1985Junglist_1985 Los Angeles
    Posts: 1,032
    Just a thought... assuming NTTD stays on track for Nov 2020 release, and other fall releases WW84, Black Widow, Dune, etc get pushed back to late spring/summer 2021 AND the Academy awards are still on - are we looking at NTTD cleaning up at the Oscars? How many other films would realistically be competing here other than NTTD and Tenet?
  • RichardTheBruceRichardTheBruce I'm motivated by my Duty.
    Posts: 13,792
    I still think No Time To Die will be #1 at the box office during its release.

    An Oscar cleanup will be welcome. But Tenet.

    tenor.gif
  • JamesBondKenyaJamesBondKenya Danny Boyle laughs to himself
    Posts: 2,730
    Just a thought... assuming NTTD stays on track for Nov 2020 release, and other fall releases WW84, Black Widow, Dune, etc get pushed back to late spring/summer 2021 AND the Academy awards are still on - are we looking at NTTD cleaning up at the Oscars? How many other films would realistically be competing here other than NTTD and Tenet?

    If it gets CR/SF critical reception then we can hope for a best picture nom, that would be hilarious.
  • Posts: 625
    Just a thought... assuming NTTD stays on track for Nov 2020 release, and other fall releases WW84, Black Widow, Dune, etc get pushed back to late spring/summer 2021 AND the Academy awards are still on - are we looking at NTTD cleaning up at the Oscars? How many other films would realistically be competing here other than NTTD and Tenet?

    Not gonna happen.
    NTTD does not come up on those Oscar predictions lists:

    https://www.indiewire.com/feature/oscars-2021-best-picture-predictions-1234572041/

    https://www.goldderby.com/feature/2021-oscar-best-picture-predictions-1203337083/

  • Posts: 3,276
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    Just a thought... assuming NTTD stays on track for Nov 2020 release, and other fall releases WW84, Black Widow, Dune, etc get pushed back to late spring/summer 2021 AND the Academy awards are still on - are we looking at NTTD cleaning up at the Oscars? How many other films would realistically be competing here other than NTTD and Tenet?

    Not gonna happen.
    NTTD does not come up on those Oscar predictions lists:
    "Leading Contenders

    “Da 5 Bloods” (Netflix – June 12)
    "Mank” (Netflix – Fall)
    “Hillbilly Elegy” (Netflix – Fall)
    “Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix – Fall)

    Releasing movies on Netflix seems like the way to go if you want to increase your odds.
  • An Oscar year when Tenet and No Time To Die were the main contenders would certainly be interesting. However, I suspect smaller films will come to the fore and be awarded the main prizes......
  • Posts: 859
    Oscars mean nothing. It's not rewarding talent but diversity nowodays...
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